Wednesday, April 13, 2005

Harper & McGuinty: Carpe Diem

We've rode speculation before that McGuinty was on his way out, but now he seems to think he can become the second war theatre for Martin. Bummer.

Add to that Harper's change of tone - he wants a June election - and it all adds up to a very bad day for Martin.

McGuinty can say anything he wants, I suggest he is purely in a responsive mode. If the Tories waited, he would have stayed quiet. But since the Tories are getting ready to launch, he must, too. Better to fight and die, than to not fight at all - for surely die we must.

So what is prompting Harper to push for an early election? Simple risk management. There are three major events: The continued Gomery testimony (now through fall); the Brault trial in June; and the Gomery report in November. Harper controls none of it.

The testimony is on-going and Harper just needs to stand back and let the train wreck happen. Any testimony that seems to exonerate Martin will be weighed down like a body with concrete shoes in the bay by the upcoming trial. The criminal trial is a wild card - inculpatory or exculpatory for the Libs? No way to know. Better to let it be defined prospectively than retrospectively. The Gomery report? Again, no way forecast. So take today's momentum, axe the unknowns of tomorrow, and seize the day.

Carpe diem. How fitting that a common French phrase best captures Paul Martin's unscheduled retirement.

But that's not all; it gets potentially worse. One Lib PM has resigned form the party. The Ontario ministers met last night. The full Liberal caucus meets today. Instead of carpe diem, the catch phrase may be et tu (your name here).

UPDATE: I'm laughing ... yes, as a friendly reader points out - carpe diem is Latin, not French. But it resonated so well. See how easy it is to get blinded with the power of journalism?

UPDATE 2: Saisir le jour!!!!

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