My Aisling

Bush Wins Re-election Handily; Kerry Disputes (your state here for nominal donation)

The headline blares Top Democrats lead Bush in poll. The text tells us that Kerry would win 55% to 43% over W in the popular vote. Sounds impressive. Good for ole JFK, 3d.

Also good thing for America that we don't elect presidents based upon the popular vote (regardless of the natural skew in the results now because W is patient and allowing Mr. Teresa Heinz to weave his own fabric).

Zogby gives us a more intelligent view. He shows us the red and blue states, gives some data, then offers to sell you the details.

I ran the red/blue states through an Electoral College calculator. W 278; Kerry 260. Close, but a win.

Further, Zogby tells us that Kerry wins the blue states closely - 46% to 45%. The red states are won by W easily - 51% to 39%. That indicates that Kerry has a lot more to lose than gain. Flip NY only and the W states are 309 to 229.

Polls are funny this time of year. People who write headlines are even more funny.