Wednesday, April 7, 2004

Electoral Count as of today

Real Clear Politics tracks the latest polls and presents them on a single page.

I have put the latest numbers into an Electoral College Calculator.

The RCP data does not cover every state. Regardless, the tally from the RCP polls is 178 for W, and 145 for Kerry.

Using the 2000 actual data to fill in the blanks yields a result of 314 for W, and 224 for Kerry.

I put the missing RCP states in alphabetically ... and it was the Great State of Texas that put W over the top!!

The states that Kerry could not afford to lose but did were PA, OH, and FL, collectively contributing 68 electoral votes. A sweep of those three states by W ends the counting.

California's 55 EVs are in play. Gore took the state by 11. Kerry was up 13, and now is up only 9. It is not just W's ads, of course. It is Arnold's continued success. Just today, Arnold has suggested that the legislature be reduced to part time. I trust he didn't state that flippantly. If it was a trial balloon, having lived there, I think it is a great idea. The operational cost savings, the reduced legislation ... if packaged properly, I think it can be a model for smaller government across the country. And you just know W will share the stage at key times.

New York's 31 EVs are in play. Statements praising terrorists, calling them legitimate voices, and then quickly questioning his own words play strongly in New York. They may have a strong history of voting for dems, but they do not vote for idiots - Dukakis, Mondale, or Carter II.

If the country sees polling data with NY and CA in play, Kerry's prospects of being on the wrong side of an electoral blowout blossom.

This brings The American Thinker's piece outlining a dem disaster scenario into play. Could Kerry be so bad that he walks away? As much as I respect their logic, I think Kerry is much too arrogant, much too convinced of his rightful place in history to ever drop out of the race.

An analogy can be drawn from Clinton to him: Bubba was too smart to resign, he knew political storms were most fun in the eye and that their strength dissipates over time; Kerry is too stupid to know he's standing in the rain. Let's hope he doesn't look up with his mouth agape.

No comments:

Post a Comment