Saturday, April 17, 2004

Electoral Update W 336 to 202

The RCP Polls give a starting point for the analysis. Those states not addressed are given to the 2000 winner.

The problem for Kerry is simple - the only states changing sides are those won by Gore in 2000. The latest run of switching states includes NJ, NM, PA, OR, and WI, a total of 59 electoral votes.

Polls show W back and forth on FL, but I don't believe it. The panhandle will vote completely this time, and it is clear that the Jewish vote is shifting. It will shift enough to give W FL, the only question is whether it will shift enough to give W NY.

Even more trouble for Kerry is that his grasp on IL and MD is slipping. IL was won by 12 points by Gore; Kerry is up only 8 points. MD was Gore's by 16, presently Kerry's by only 9.

The movement in all the states is away from Kerry and towards W, or towards the incumbent, however you want to view it.

How long will it be before Kerry's numbers are less than 200?

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