Thursday, April 3, 2008

Herself should play by pub rules

Started playing with some numbers. It struck me how different the dems and pubs are in choosing delegates. Is one system better? One party is campaigning for the general election right now, including foreign trips already completed. The other party is gnawing off its own leg below the knee to try to free itself from the predicament it put itself into. You can talk amongst yourselves and come to a consensus answer: It takes a village to _________?

I came to a conclusion: If the dems used pub rules, Herself would win the nomination with ease.

A couple of avenues to explore …

First, the pubs have 5% of their total delegates designated as “super-delegates,” those amorphous beings with PACs waiting to receive contributions from presidential campaigns are they contemplate their endorsement. The dems? 19%. Funny thing, too (like “funny” pathetic, not ha-ha), is that the majority of the dems supers are unelected party figures.

So, first, let’s recalculate the delegate totals by state to 95% pledged and 5% super. The 794 present supers (until the page is turned in the client list book) drops to 202.

Next, let’s switch to the winner-take-all approach of the pubs, as opposed to the proportional allocation the dems use.

Before any changes, the pledged delegates are: O'bambi, 1,677; Herself 1,515.

Recast existing pledged delegates as described above: O'bambi, 1,529; Herself 1,659.

Roles reversed. Who’d be calling for O’bambi to drop out, eh?

Future contests: O'bambi - Guam, Indiana, NC, Oregon, Montana, and SD. Herself - PA (my home state), WV, Kentucky, and Puerto Rico.

Expected pledged counts: O'bambi, 1,851; Herself, 1,991. So very close to 2,024.

Of the 202 super-delegates, O'bambi would need 173, or 86%. Herself would need just 33, or 16%.

The last adjustment is one that just befuddles me. Both pubs and dems rule books provide for a 50% hit in delegate counts for violating scheduling provisions. So Michigan and Florida both violate the scheduling dictates of both parties. The pubs say, “OK, 50% hit!” The dems say, “OK, no delegates for you!”

Hunh? They can’t write a rule and a sanction in advance and uniformly enforce it? if the sanction wasn’t good enough, then change the rule book. Duh?

Presume they merely enforced them: Give Herself half of Florida's recast pledged - 95 delegates. Clinched.

Poor, poor Herself. What a remarkable way to run a party.

Not sure why, but I feel like adding this note. This website has the draw of an impending train wreck. Claims to be a completely anonymous way to send e’s to people. I detest finding things like this. I know I won’t use it, but it is soooo inviting.

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