Pennsylvania Election 2008 Deconstructed
Looking at exit polls, Obama’s largest gains seemed to with women and Protestants. There was a significant 11 point swing in conservatives away from McCain. All income levels showed gains for Obama except $100-150,000. Interestingly the largest gains (in swing percentage not actual voters) were in the highest income levels. These gains are probably consistent with the large gain in post-graduate education. Which goes to show you that a Ph.D. and tenured income lead to liberal guilt and self-hate.
Obama did not move the Latino vote (what’s the difference between a Latino and a Hispanic?) That lack of movement suggests an opportunity for the conservatives.
| Category | Kerry | Obama | Swing |
| Male | -3% | +4% | +7% |
| Female | +8% | +18% | +10% |
| White | -9% | -4% | +5% |
| Black | +68% | +90% | +22% |
| Latino | +44% | +44% | -0- |
| 18-29 | +21% | +30% | +9% |
| 30-44 | -3% | +6% | +9% |
| 45-59 | -0- | ||
| 45-64 | +14% | +14%? | |
| 60 and Older | -4% | ||
| 65 and Older | -2% | +2%? | |
| Democrat | +70% | +80% | +10% |
| Republican | -78% | -74% | +4% |
| Independent | +17% | +22% | +5% |
| Protestant | -30% | +2% | +32% |
| Catholic | -6% | -4% | +2% |
| Other | +25% | +68% | +43% |
| None | +25% | +70% | +45% |
| H.S. Graduate | -2% | +6% | +8% |
| Some College | +8% | +8% | -0- |
| College Graduate | +7% | +6% | -1% |
| Postgraduate | +4% | +42% | +38% |
| Liberal | +76% | +82% | +6% |
| Moderate | +14% | +18% | +4% |
| Conservative | -73% | -62% | +11% |
| Under $15,000 | +20% | +50% | +30% |
| $15-30,000 | +21% | +28% | +7% |
| $30-50,000 | -3% | +18% | +21% |
| $50-75,000 | -4% | -0- | +4% |
| $75-100,000 | +5% | +12% | +7% |
| $100-150,000 | +3% | -8% | -11% |
| $150-200,000 | -30% | +14% | +44% |
| $200,000 or More | -56% | +20% | +76% |
The single biggest contributor to Obama’s four-fold increase in margin seems to have been the dramatic increase (485,206) in dem registrations coupled with the decrease in pub margins (162,337). (See the region table immediately below and the county-by-county table at the end of the post).
The Delaware Valley increase marked a spreading of dem registrations outside the City of Philadelphia into Montgomery, Delaware, Chester, Bucks, and Berks Counties. The gains in these counties were twice the gains seen in Phila. County. So much for Black Panthers bearing night sticks.
Northeastern PA contributed more votes due perhaps to Biden’s claim of being a local – 50 years ago. The Coal Region oddly flipped from about break-even for Kerry to strongly for Obama. Go figure. Must assume he’ll give them health care and pay their mortgage when they all lose their jobs due to the new Greenhouse Tax.
Lehigh Valley contributed significantly – it is just two counties, Lehigh and Northampton. Both have a lot of higher ed.
The Pittsburgh area contributed less to Obama than to Kerry, and some counties flipped to the pub. That the area Murtha referred to as “a bunch of racists” only to correct himself later by saying “I meant rednecks.” Murtha got re-elected. I guess rednecks either forget real quick, don’t know how to use a voting machine, or are, in fact, racists.
Here’s some of the major regions:
| Regions (inc. some overlaps) | ||||||
| Delaware Valley (Phila Metro) | 499,230 | 223,973 | (124,180) | (518) | 656,456 | 157,226 |
| Penna. Dutch (inc. Harrisburg) | (235,796) | 134,174 | (6,437) | 19,284 | (62,548) | 173,248 |
| Lehigh Valley | 5,124 | 44,300 | 1,545 | 10,509 | 40,162 | 35,038 |
| Northeastern PA | (22,557) | 28,105 | (18,641) | 8,865 | 28,961 | 51,518 |
| Coal Region | (311) | 6,251 | (19,847) | 3,036 | 28,835 | 29,146 |
| Pittsburgh Metro | 45,687 | 33,403 | (4,546) | 8,714 | 34,367 | (11,320) |
And here is the county-by-county data:
| County | Kerry | Change in Dems | Change in Pubs | Change in Others | Obama | Kerry-Obama Spread |
| ADAMS | (14,483) | 2,992 | 380 | 693 | (8,659) | 5,824 |
| ALLEGHENY | 96,987 | 37,249 | (6,401) | 6,257 | 98,634 | 1,647 |
| ARMSTRONG | (6,900) | 83 | 24 | 164 | (6,986) | (86) |
| BEAVER | 2,230 | (2,582) | (1,299) | (200) | (2,620) | (4,850) |
| BEDFORD | (10,590) | 689 | 346 | 266 | (9,927) | 663 |
| BERKS | (10,813) | 22,278 | (1,186) | 2,943 | 15,935 | 26,748 |
| BLAIR | (17,646) | 3,376 | (122) | 553 | (12,014) | 5,632 |
| BRADFORD | (8,352) | 1,763 | 970 | 289 | (4,709) | 3,643 |
| BUCKS | 8,969 | 21,991 | (24,261) | (4,663) | 28,485 | 19,516 |
| BUTLER | (24,869) | 4,664 | 2,470 | 1,642 | (22,412) | 2,457 |
| CAMBRIA | (1,457) | 610 | (564) | 641 | 716 | 2,173 |
| CAMERON | (805) | 4 | (27) | 39 | (437) | 368 |
| CARBON | (296) | 2,268 | 111 | 582 | 589 | 885 |
| CENTRE | (2,400) | 13,674 | 2,444 | 3,149 | 7,681 | 10,081 |
| CHESTER | (10,328) | 26,433 | (20,119) | (4,372) | 22,884 | 33,212 |
| CLARION | (5,014) | 874 | 386 | 411 | (3,711) | 1,303 |
| CLEARFIELD | (7,015) | 1,237 | 287 | 448 | (4,107) | 2,908 |
| CLINTON | (2,212) | 1,811 | 312 | 435 | (327) | 1,885 |
| COLUMBIA | (5,373) | 2,539 | 798 | 981 | (1,107) | 4,266 |
| CRAWFORD | (5,952) | 3,105 | (229) | 920 | (3,581) | 2,371 |
| CUMBERLAND | (29,720) | 9,917 | (3,184) | 948 | (14,338) | 15,382 |
| DAUPHIN | (9,997) | 19,525 | (1,846) | 1,837 | 11,388 | 21,385 |
| DELAWARE | 42,176 | 41,088 | (22,314) | 975 | 59,708 | 17,532 |
| ELK | (1,270) | 175 | (613) | (66) | 658 | 1,928 |
| ERIE | 10,549 | 9,139 | (10,447) | 1,771 | 24,922 | 14,373 |
| FAYETTE | 4,075 | 1,404 | 511 | 537 | (160) | (4,235) |
| FOREST | (582) | 221 | (128) | 29 | (352) | 230 |
| FRANKLIN | (25,255) | 3,512 | 1,964 | 1,243 | (20,659) | 4,596 |
| FULTON | (3,297) | 225 | 488 | 180 | (3,050) | 247 |
| GREENE | (112) | (43) | 265 | 210 | (86) | 26 |
| HUNTINGDON | (6,247) | 923 | (168) | 107 | (5,276) | 971 |
| INDIANA | (4,423) | 2,883 | 460 | 1,064 | (2,653) | 1,770 |
| JEFFERSON | (7,298) | 496 | 326 | 397 | (5,116) | 2,182 |
| JUNIATA | (4,347) | 244 | 176 | 113 | (3,408) | 939 |
| LACKAWANNA | 14,807 | 5,502 | (4,021) | 1,362 | 27,914 | 13,107 |
| LANCASTER | (71,263) | 21,951 | (8,673) | 352 | (27,185) | 44,078 |
| LAWRENCE | (551) | 1,847 | 514 | 494 | (1,948) | (1,397) |
| LEBANON | (18,980) | 6,339 | 1,248 | 1,189 | (10,321) | 8,659 |
| LEHIGH | 3,780 | 24,145 | (1,564) | 3,953 | 23,558 | 19,778 |
| LUZERNE | 4,620 | (9,103) | (14,444) | (1,724) | 11,391 | 6,771 |
| LYCOMING | (18,280) | 2,348 | (342) | 894 | (11,880) | 6,400 |
| MCKEAN | (4,647) | 436 | (986) | 72 | (2,649) | 1,998 |
| MERCER | (1,480) | 3,211 | 479 | 1,156 | (2) | 1,478 |
| MIFFLIN | (6,837) | (222) | (845) | (38) | (5,540) | 1,297 |
| MONROE | (4) | 12,842 | (816) | 3,150 | 10,763 | 10,767 |
| MONTGOMERY | 46,307 | 49,810 | (29,126) | (496) | 86,463 | 40,156 |
| MONTOUR | (2,237) | 638 | 69 | 183 | (1,208) | 1,029 |
| NORTHAMPTON | 1,344 | 20,155 | 3,109 | 6,556 | 16,604 | 15,260 |
| NORTHUMBERLAND | (7,660) | 1,153 | (132) | 1,029 | (4,457) | 3,203 |
| PERRY | (8,496) | 954 | (170) | 1 | (6,648) | 1,848 |
| PHILADELPHIA | 412,106 | 84,651 | (28,360) | 8,038 | 458,916 | 46,810 |
| PIKE | (3,788) | 4,205 | 1,599 | 1,724 | (1,008) | 2,780 |
| POTTER | (3,372) | (73) | (525) | (40) | (2,796) | 576 |
| SCHUYLKILL | (6,409) | 3,892 | (2,159) | 806 | (5,495) | 914 |
| SNYDER | (6,218) | 934 | 108 | 319 | (4,520) | 1,698 |
| SOMERSET | (10,960) | 652 | 1,266 | (563) | (8,488) | 2,472 |
| SULLIVAN | (843) | 85 | (103) | 25 | (612) | 231 |
| SUSQUEHANNA | (4,222) | 1,502 | 34 | 478 | (2,237) | 1,985 |
| TIOGA | (6,582) | 924 | (1,802) | 1,423 | (4,530) | 2,052 |
| UNION | (4,634) | 1,888 | 123 | 405 | (2,513) | 2,121 |
| VENANGO | (5,448) | (393) | (2,110) | (157) | (4,109) | 1,339 |
| WARREN | (2,955) | 864 | (928) | 50 | (1,155) | 1,800 |
| WASHINGTON | 552 | 86 | 1,674 | 1,058 | (4,467) | (5,019) |
| WAYNE | (5,653) | 1,933 | (297) | 362 | (2,794) | 2,859 |
| WESTMORELAND | (22,313) | (6,097) | (1,014) | (207) | (27,782) | (5,469) |
| WYOMING | (2,800) | 819 | (547) | (20) | (863) | 1,937 |
| YORK | (50,569) | 22,561 | 6,594 | 6,125 | (25,619) | 24,950 |
| 144,248 | 495,206 | (162,337) | 58,482 | 600,688 | 456,440 |
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