Friday, November 7, 2008

US Senate Elections 2012

The 2012 cycle is substantially different than the 2010 cycle which is posted here.

While 2010 cycle has slightly more pubs up than dems - 19 to 17 (including special elections for Obama, Biden, and Kennedy) - the 2012 cycle will feature just 9 pubs but 24 dems (including Lieberman and Sanders).

The keys seems to be to hold ground - at worst - in 2010. A majority can come back in 2012 to the Republican party.

Here's the data:

2008 Election Results

State

Incumbent

Age in 2012

Party

Status

POTUS

Senate

House (Dem: Pub)

California

Dianne Feinstein

79

Democratic

Obama + 24%

N/A

34:18 (1)

Delaware

Tom Carper

65

Democratic

Obama + 25%

Dem Hold (Biden)

0:1

Florida

Bill Nelson

70

Democratic

Obama + 2%

N/A

10:15

Hawaii

Daniel Akaka

88

Democratic

Obama + 45%

N/A

2:0

Maryland

Ben Cardin

69

Democratic

Obama + 23%

N/A

6:1 (1)

Massachusetts

Kennedy TBD

TBD

Democratic

Obama + 26%

Dem Hold

10:0

Michigan

Debbie Stabenow

62

Democratic

Obama + 16%

Dem Hold

8:7

Minnesota

Amy Klobuchar

52

Democratic

Obama + 10%

Recount

5:3

Missouri

Claire McCaskill

59

Democratic

McCain + 1%

N/A

4:5

Montana

Jon Tester

56

Democratic

McCain + 3%

Dem Hold

0:1

Nebraska

Ben Nelson

71

Democratic

McCain + 6%

Pub Hold

0:3

New Jersey

Bob Menendez

58

Democratic

Obama + 15%

Dem Hold

8:5

New Mexico

Jeff Bingaman

69

Democratic

Obama + 15%

Dem Pickup

3:0

New York

Hillary Clinton

65

Democratic

Obama + 25%

N/A

26:3

North Dakota

Kent Conrad

64

Democratic

McCain + 8%

N/A

1:0

Ohio

Sherrod Brown

60

Democratic

Obama + 4%

N/A

9:8

Pennsylvania

Bob Casey, Jr.

52

Democratic

Obama + 11%

N/A

12:7

Rhode Island

Sheldon Whitehouse

57

Democratic

Obama + 28%

Dem Hold

2:0

Virginia

Jim Webb

66

Democratic

Obama + 36

Dem Pickup

5:5 (1)

Washington

Maria Cantwell

54

Democratic

Obama + 17%

N/A

6:2 (1)

West Virginia

Robert Byrd

95

Democratic

McCain + 13%

Dem Hold

2:1

Wisconsin

Herb Kohl

77

Democratic

Obama + 13%

N/A

5:3

Vermont

Bernie Sanders

71

Independent

Obama + 35%

N/A

1:0

Connecticut

Joe Lieberman

70

Independent Democrat

Obama + 21%

N/A

5:0

(1) Some races undecided

2008 Election Results

State

Incumbent

Age in 2012

Party

Status

POTUS

Senate

House (Dem: Pub)

Arizona

Jon Kyl

70

Republican

McCain + 9%

N/A

5:3

Indiana

Dick Lugar

80

Republican

Running

Obama + 1%

N/A

5:4

Maine

Olympia Snowe

65

Republican

Obama + 17%

Pub Hold

2:0

Mississippi

Roger Wicker

61

Republican

McCain + 14%

Pub Hold Both

3:1

Nevada

John Ensign

54

Republican

Obama + 12%

N/A

2:1

Tennessee

Bob Corker

60

Republican

Running

McCain + 15%

Pub Hold

5:4

Texas

Kay Bailey Hutchison

69

Republican

Resign in 2009?

McCain + 11%

Pub Hold

12:20

Utah

Orrin Hatch

78

Republican

McCain + 29%

N/A

1:2

Wyoming

John Barrasso

60

Republican

McCain + 32%

Pub Hold Both

0:1

(1) Some races undecided

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