the bad in "bad predictions"

I am somewhat reluctant to even write this post, let alone publish it. I found an article, the “Top 87 Bad Predictions about the Future”. I enjoyed reading it, but let’s retitle it, “Top 85 …”

It’s a good list except for the two political cracks. George the Elder “no new taxes” completely blows off the fact that the dems in Congress blatantly and publicly lied to set him up. They said the increases in taxes would be offset by decreases in spending, and the margin would dollar-for-dollar reduce the deficit. It was a political trade in the best interests of the country. Geo the Elder bit – then the dems bailed and crucified him. Not only did they not reduce spending, they increased it. A-holes top to bottom. The other crack is about Iraq and WMDs. Everyone thought – including Clinton – that they were there. We all had evidence they were there (just ask the Kurds), the UN required proof of destruction, and Iraq refused entry to sites to allow us to prove out their words – yeah, the Iraqi government lied plenty of times before, so they had no veracity on this topic. So this statement by Franks is on par with the rest of the list – space travel, light bulbs, television? I really detest political and social agendas buried in otherwise worthy reading. Childish of them. Degrades their work.

I’ll press ahead anyway because I am … um … me. Screw ‘em. Ain’t no lib with a sign that reads, “Bush lied and people died” gonna take away my fun. How’s this for a sign, “I have my head stuck so far up my ass that I can fart out my ears.” What a copy? Establish your lib credentials to me and I will have the sign made and shipped to you.

Onward.

«I see no good reasons why the views given in this volume should shock the religious sensibilities of anyone.» Charles Darwin, in the foreword to his book, The Origin of Species, 1869. Actually, I agree with him. It was not his work, but the abuse of it that has caused such turmoil. His work speaks only of evolution, not a word about creation. He can write all he wanted to about apes-to-men, but there was no fossil record of it and he admitted the same. He did say it existed, but just hadn’t been found. That was his scientific mistake. He should never speculate. Not good science. He found evidence of intra-species evolution and should have limited his speculation. Oh well.

«They couldn't hit an elephant at this dist-» Last words of Gen. John Sedgwick, spoken as he looked out over the parapet at enemy lines during the Battle of Spotsylvania on May 9, 1864, then promptly took a fatal shot. Here’s the full story: His corps was probing skirmish lines ahead of the left flank of Confederate defenses and he was directing artillery placements. Confederate sharpshooters were about 1,000 yards away and their shots caused members of his staff and artillerymen to duck for cover. Sedgwick strode around in the open and was quoted as saying, "What? Men dodging this way for single bullets? What will you do when they open fire along the whole line? I am ashamed of you. They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance." Although ashamed, his men continued to flinch and he repeated, "I'm ashamed of you, dodging that way. They couldn't hit an elephant at this distance." Just seconds later he fell forward with a bullet hole below his left eye. – Bet that left a mark, eh, John?

«... good enough for our transatlantic friends ... but unworthy of the attention of practical or scientific men.» British Parliamentary Committee, referring to Edison's light bulb, 1878. Ironic that the symbol for having an idea is now a light bulb above a head.

«There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.» Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977. This caught my attention because I graduated high school that year. About six years later I bought my first home computer. I wonder if the statement is given more weight than he meant. It could have just been some marketing territory thing, a put-down of an upstart competitor.

«Lee DeForest has said in many newspapers and over his signature that it would be possible to transmit the human voice across the Atlantic before many years. Based on these absurd and deliberately misleading statements, the misguided public ... has been persuaded to purchase stock in his company ...» a U.S. District Attorney, prosecuting American inventor Lee DeForest for selling stock fraudulently through the mail for his Radio Telephone Company in 1913. What amazes me is when people think outside their profession. I understand the drill – for some trial work, I had to prepare to go (and did) toe-to-toe with docs and other professionals, attacking them in their field of expertise. But here, raising money to conduct scientific inquiry does not seem to rise to the level of a crime. It could have all been in the delivery – “I guaranty this can happen. Your returns on these investments will be no less than six-fold.” Those statements would be worthy of indictment, but would not make good fodder for a bad-quotations list.

«Space travel is utter bilge.» Richard Van Der Riet Woolley, upon assuming the post of Astronomer Royal in 1956. ”Bilge” is such a great word. American Heritage provides the following: “1. The rounded portion of a ship's hull, forming a transition between the bottom and the sides. The lowest inner part of a ship's hull. 2. Bilge water. 3. [Slang] Stupid talk or writing; nonsense. 4. The bulging part of a barrel or cask.” I am singularly unsatisfied with this list of definitions. The slang doesn’t seem to have a basis in the rest. Here’s the etymology: c. 1513, "lowest internal part of a ship," also "the foulness which collects there," variant of bulge "ship's hull." Ah, that makes sense. It is “stupid talk” as in “foul words.” So I wanted to see when the guy died (December 24, 1986) to get a lift out of what he saw in his lifetime, and I found the complete quote: "It's utter bilge. I don't think anybody will ever put up enough money to do such a thing . . . What good would it do us? If we spent the same amount of money on preparing first-class astronomical equipment we would learn much more about the universe . . . It is all rather rot." Ah, while there is a history in the guy (in 1936, reviewing P.E. Cleator's "Rockets in Space", he also said, "The whole procedure [of shooting rockets into space]...presents difficulties of so fundamental a nature, that we are forced to dismiss the notion as essentially impracticable, in spite of the author's insistent appeal to put aside prejudice and to recollect the supposed impossibility of heavier-than-air flight before it was actually accomplished"), the “bilge” quote seems to be taken out of context. I am becoming less enamored with this “list” as I go.

«A rocket will never be able to leave the Earth's atmosphere.» New York Times, 1936. Back on track. Nothing like the stupidity of the NYT on display to brighten my spirits. Commercial: “I read the NYT because it gives me a view of the news not available anywhere else.” Yes, but the problem with the “view” is that the sources are specious, the writing usually opinion appearing off the op-ed pages, and they have this kiss-my-ass attitude about anyone that differs with their world view. While I don’t mind, as a general statement, a KMA attitude, I do mind when it is them because, well, they are them. Know what I mean? They can kiss my ass.

«Atomic energy might be as good as our present-day explosives, but it is unlikely to produce anything very much more dangerous.» Winston Churchill, British Prime Minister, 1939. Fundamental problem: A politician speaking not of politics, but of science. Shudder.

«A man has been arrested in New York for attempting to extort funds from ignorant and superstitious people by exhibiting a device which he says will convey the human voice any distance over metallic wires so that it will be heard by the listener at the other end. He calls this instrument a telephone. Well-informed people know that it is impossible to transmit the human voice over wires.» News item in a New York newspaper, 1868. Is this the NYT incognito?

«Rail travel at high speed is not possible, because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia.» Dr Dionysius Larder (1793-1859), professor of Natural Philosophy and Astronomy, University College London. [I had to correct the spelling of his first name from the source post.] It seems the comment was related to an assessment of a plan to have the government fund the construction of a broader gauge railroad track. An informative bit: “Brunel himself suggested that the opinions of other engineers should be sought and he was unlucky enough to be saddled with a Dr Dionysius Lardner who displayed a remarkable talent for drawing incorrect conclusions from observed data. Lardner attributed the poor performance of the company's best engine to the excessive air resistance of the wide locomotives and concluded that the broad gauge was inherently inferior. However, Brunel and Gooch found that it was back pressure due to misalignment of the blast pipe orifice and not air resistance which was the cause. After some hasty modifications to the engine they were able to haul nearly three times the load on but one third of the fuel used in Lardner's tests.” So, the statement was an extension of his (albeit incorrect) conclusion based upon observed data. Not as egregious as presented.

«The idea that cavalry will be replaced by these iron coaches is absurd. It is little short of treasonous.» Comment of Aide-de-camp to Field Marshal Haig, at tank demonstration, 1916. But, sir, when you hit the tank with a bullet, it goes “tink!” as opposed to the “ooooff!” you get from a horse or rider!

«Fooling around with alternating current is just a waste of time. Nobody will use it, ever.» Thomas Edison, American inventor, 1889 (Edison often ridiculed the arguments of competitor George Westinghouse for AC power). There are many quotes by Edison that I have read over the years of this ilk. The boy seems to have been a singularly disagreeable fellow. I suspect he was widely disliked by all but his fellow megalomaniacs of the time.

Alright, I’m done. But I did learn something … on balance, the article wasn’t fair. Oh well. Good thing I don’t pay for column inches.

eating roots

Logic games. 2 + 2 = 5, for particularly high values of 2. Is that logic or merely understanding the difference beginning truncating and formatting, or perhaps that engineers abhor truncation? If you are scared half to death two times without opportunity for recovery in between, do you die? Logic or assuming a fact not in evidence, ergo, one cannot literally be scared half to death.

What passes for logic in this world is oftentimes specious. Did you know that “oftentimes” is a word? Why shouldn’t it be, eh? “Sometimes” is ok; “anytime” is fine. I think oftentimes will become my new favorite word. I will use it in sentences oftentimes.

Come to think of it, “often” is pretty cool. Sounds soft, like a pussy cat. This is from the Online Etymology Dictionary: c.1300, extended form of oft (q.v.), originally before vowels and h-, probably by infl. of M.E. selden "seldom." In common use from 16c., replacing oft. Extended form oftentimes is attested from c.1430.

I used a word that is coming up on 600 years old. I am so proud of myself.

I knew it! I was having a conversation with my twin last night and the topic of the etymology of “snot” arose – or rather, shot out. I suspected that it was shortened from another word (you reading this?). Ta da! But before I stand too tall, I did believe that perhaps it was rooted in the expulsion of an object, and was shortened and applied to that which was expelled. But I was partially right! O.E. gesnot "nasal mucus," from P.Gmc. *snuttan (cf. O.Fris. snotta, M.L.G., M.Du. snotte, M.L.G. snute), from the same base as snout. O.E. also had a verb snite "wipe or pick one's nose." Meaning "despicable person" is from 1809. Snotty "impudent, curt, conceited" first recorded 1870; snotnose "upstart" is from 1941.

Funny how language lingers. Old English, “gesnot.” And today, “What’s that?!” “Oh, jus’ snot.” Remarkable.

I love the word, “cellar”: c.1225, from O.Fr. celer, from L. cellarium "pantry, storeroom," lit. "group of cells," from L. cella. I read a long, long time ago that “cellar door” is the most melodic phrase in the English language. I don’t know if that is true, but I have adopted it. Beautiful phrase.

I remember being at work when I in my mid-20s. This girl who worked with me – nice enough, probably a good person, but we just annoyed each other terribly – her last name was Moreno. I remember a VP had her name in a doc and spellchecked it. He laughed a little too loudly and said, “Hey, the closest word to ‘Moreno’ is ‘moron’!” I really don’t think anyone else heard it, and he was a very nice guy just finding humor in it. I laughed at the symmetry. Yeah, I was young and northern.

Moron: 1910, from Gk. (Attic) moron, neut. of moros "foolish, dull" (probably cognate with Skt. murah "idiotic;" L. morus "foolish" is a loan-word from Gk.). Adopted by the American Association for the Study of the Feeble-minded with a technical definition "adult with a mental age between 8 and 12;" used as an insult since 1922 and subsequently dropped from technical use. Linnæus had introduced morisis "idiocy."

Boy, coin the word one year, and twelve years later the northerners get their hands on it. I never realized how fundamental the Mason-Dixon Line was to a well-lived life until recently.

Speaking of being from the north, I learned the other day that you’re not supposed to say “butt” in front of strangers. Go figure! I mean, it was a nurse in a proctologist’s office. It wasn’t like I said, “Would you stick that in my butt?” Or, “Does my butt look fat in these jeans?” Nothing like that. Well, come to think of it, it was a variant of the first one. OK. Some things I just have to accept. I’m learning.

Been drifting back to Marc Bolan lately. Thirty years ago next month he ate a tree at some nasty-fast speed. Glam rock. What a great period in my life. I really enjoy the videos on you tube – search on t rex.

Got things to do. Later.

of lawyers and other whiners

Vladdie Putin is sooo funny. Reagan’s dream of a missile-defense system is in the deployment stage. So, Vladdie is in full temper tantrum mode. An article a few days ago read that Vladdie claimed he could get around the system. In the link above, he is saying he’ll just have to select targets in Europe. Wait, if he could get around it, then why would he need to change targets?

I remember when the Strategic Defense Initiative was publicly proposed. The libs called it “Star Wars.” Said it wouldn’t work, was nothing more than a pipe dream. This is, boys and girls, I was close to the programs in the early 1980s. They had been in development for years before Reagan publicly announced the initiative. They were already off the drawing board and into prototype mode. The development now has Vladdie stomping his feet and holding his breath. If he wasn’t worried about it, he would be encouraging its deployment or staying silent.

If you ever want to know how scared someone is, listen to the empty threats they toss around. I almost feel sad for the guy. Must be frustrating to have your entire offensive arsenal rendered useless overnight.

After a critical assessment, I have been determined to be most like the disease rabies (so is my daughter!) What disease are you?

The Beatles have launched a new site dedicated to Sgt. Pepper. June 1, 2007, marked 40 years since its release. What I find very telling is that John’s voice is not among the snippets of discussion on the site – Paul, George, RIngo, George Martin – but no John. Rather underscores the a-holic nature of Yoko.

OK, I suck at true math. I can do financial analyses, but I don’t speak algebra too good. So where’s the error?

a + b = c
4a - 3a + 4b - 3b = 4c - 3c
4a + 4b - 4c = 3a + 3b - 3c
4(a + b - c) = 3(a + b - c)
4 = 3

I am thinking that I am headed back to practicing law – learning too harrowingly that the corporate world has little interest in buying the cow when it can have the milk for free. Found this cartoon. I better print it out to remind me that I have some old skills to recall and new proclivities to dampen.



My main practice area was criminal law. My teaching since was in criminal justice. I think a future practice for me will be in criminal appellate work. Found a couple more humorous cartoons on point:



Bye for now ...

Deviance vs. Nonconformity

There is a difference between nonconformity and deviance. Nonconformity = cartoons, freedom of expression; deviance = criminal behavior. (Yeah, I teach criminal justice – I know, cut me a break, I’m making a point here. See the post or two below this one.) Below is a collection of deviance. Way beyond nonconformity. We learning anything yet? Pay attention. There will be a quiz.

Dude kills a 15 year old for walking on his lawn. Seems a little extreme.

The guy’s just a harmless panty sniffer. But, pal, 1,300 pairs! What’re thinking, buddy? Like to wear things that make you feel pretty? Somebody had to count these. Do you get hazard pay for that? Bet the cop union missed that potential when they negotiated the contract.

This is the true menace in society: men posting as sick boys on the net to get girls to send sexually explicit pics. 12 to 14 year olds? Dude, they are way cuter at 18 and up. C’mon, you’re 31! What is wrong with you?

He shot the cable guy? And it wasn’t even because he violated the, “I’ll be there between 8 and 12” rule by showing up at 2. He shot him because his own television set wasn’t cable-ready. Man. We need a little love here, people.

“I got an idea, honey, let’s fake our daughter’s kidnapping and get back at my sister and ex-girlfriend.” “Yeah, good plan.” “Yeah, I know we don’t live together, you and me, but we can make this work. We’ll put some of her school papers in their yard. Nobody’ll suspect anything.” Unspoken in the story, it seems, that maybe the dude’s girlfriend became an ex- by taking up with the guy’s sister. Small world.

What do you get a couple that has millions of dollars, a mansion, and everything else money can buy? How about a couple of slaves? Wow. Just frickin’ wow.

The neighbor’s front door kept slamming. Door goes slam Slam SLAM! That’s IT! The partially blind, one-legged diabetic guy grabs a 10-inch knife and “terrified” his neighbors. Which part terrified them?

Dude goes to the trouble of stealing an entire tractor-trailer with a full load. It’s like a big treasure box! I wonder what is inside? Something really, really good, I bet! How about $250,000 of Skittles? Ouch, my colon knotted up at just the thought of it.

Fifty year-old guy lives with mom. OK, you already know we have a problem. He rents a working girl and brings her home. He brought his ho home? Oh, this is going to get bad. Ah, new problem: seems the dude only looked like a lady. Working girl was actually working guy dressed like a girl. 50 year-old mom’s boy didn’t quit know how to take the slight. So he took a garden hoe to the ho and killed him/her. Here’s a good test: talk dirty to your ho – if her pants gets tighter, it’s best to move on.

Thirty-two counts of sexual assault and domestic violence for Silly the Clown. Never liked clowns. See what happens when you presume the surface of someone reflects their inside? Sublimation …

Mom gets fed up with daughter being picked on. So she gets on the school bus and tells her 9 year-old to smack the kid. Um, I don’t understand. Where’s the crime?

OK, Quiz time!

1. When a deviant loves his lawn and a kid insists on crossing it, the deviant shoots him dead. Given the same facts, a nonconformist would:

A. Politely ask the youth to stay off the lawn, and proceed to explain the deleterious effect of repeated ingress and egress on the grass.
B. Place signs that read, “Please stay off the grass!” (adorned with smiley faces) at strategic locations around the perimeter of the property.
C. Sit in a lawn chair in the middle of the lawn 24/7 on the assumption that his presence would deter the casual trespass.
D. Track the path usually walked by the youth, and populate said area with all manner of foul material including itching powder, bovine fecal stuff, horse urine, and athlete’s-foot-in-a-can.

2. When a deviant brings a prostitute home to meet his mom, and the mom says, “Tommy, why are you wearing a dress?” the deviant takes a hoe to the ho. Given the same facts, a nonconformist would:

A. Do the same thing. Contractual breach, according to the Code of Hammurabi, is punishable by death.
B. Break down in tears, beg his mother to love him anyway, and commence with his nightly cold vinegar enema even though it is two hours before nighty-nighty time.
C. Ask mommy to go to bed, then realize the sexual fantasy he’s been nursing since he was 12.
D. Break out a bottle of Jack Daniels, ask as many questions as he could think of, and proceed to write a short story about an incredibly interesting life he was lucky enough to cross paths with an evening.

3. When a pair of deviants has everything money can buy, they add to their possessions by getting a couple of slaves. Given the same facts, a nonconformist would:

A. Also buy a cotton farm.
B. Learn southern gospel songs and have sing-alongs after the dinner dishes were cleaned.
C. Write scripts for plays, make the slaves perform, and sit in the audience wearing blackface.
D. Sign everything of value over to the enslaved, and ask the former slaves to hire them as their cleaning staff.

4. When a partially blind, one-legged diabetic deviant hears the door slam once too often, he grabs a big knife and threatens the offenders. Given the same facts, a nonconformist would:

A. Bounce up and down on his one leg on their front yard, sans knife, singing Bing Crosby’s “White Christmas” until the neighbors made the connection of one annoying behavior for another.
B. Set up a lemonade stand on his front yard with a sign that reads, “Charity to buy weather striping for a-hole neighbor’s front door.”
C. Slip next door in the middle of the night and Gorilla glue their door shut.
D. All of the above.

(Answer key: If you answered “D” to all of the questions, then you are a nonconformist. If you answered any other letter to any question, then you’re a deviant and should do us all a favor by advancing your expiration date.)